Características sociodemográficas en cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro / Socio-demographic characteristics in primary caregivers of patients with brain cancer surgery

RESUMEN Introducción: la atención al enfermo es llevada a cabo por una secuencia específica de la familia, por lo que esta es considerada un cuidador principal. Objetivo: describir las características sociodemográficas en cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro. Materiales y métodos : se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo, en un universo de 128 cuidadores principales de pacientes operados de cáncer de cerebro en el Hospital Universitario Clínico Quirúrgico Comandante Faustino Pérez Hernández, de Matanzas, entre 2016 y 2018. Criterio de inclusión: cuidadores que residían en la provincia y aceptación del consentimiento informado. Se excluyeron familiares de pacientes que fallecieron durante la investigación. Se aplicaron cuestionarios y entrevistas para caracterizar los resultados. Los mismos se analizaron en frecuencias absolutas, relativas, porcentual, en paquete estadístico de SPSS versión 20.0 en Windows. Resultados : predominó el sexo femenino (79,68 %). El 100 % de los cuidadores principales residían en casa del enfermo. Prevaleció el nivel de escolaridad de técnico medio (35,93 %); 88,28 % de los cuidadores mantenían vínculo laboral, y 41,40 % eran hermanas de los enfermos. Dentro de las necesidades de aprendizaje del cuidador, el déficit de conocimientos sobre la enfermedad constituyó el 73,43 %. Conclusiones: imperó el género femenino en los cuidadores con vínculo laboral, y con mayor incidencia las hermanas. Se evidenció la complejidad del cuidado en el hogar de los pacientes con secuelas, minusvalía progresiva producidas por la enfermedad, y que generalmente la mujer asume con más facilidad (AU).

ABSTRACT Introduction: the care of the patient is carried out by a specific sequence of the family, catalogued as a main caregiver. Objective: to describe the socio-demographic characteristics in main caregivers of patients who underwent a brain cancer surgery. Materials and methods: a retrospective, descriptive study was carried out in a universe of 128 main caregivers of patients who underwent brain cancer surgery in the University Hospital Faustino Perez Hernandez, of Matanzas, from 2016 until 2018. Inclusion criteria: caregivers living in the province of Matanzas and giving the informed consent. The relatives of patients who died during the research were excluded. Interviews were made and questionnaires applied to characterize the results. They were analyzed in absolute, relative, and percentage frequencies in statistical packet Windows SPSS, 20.0. Results: female sex predominated (79.68%). 100% of main caregivers lived in the house of the patient. The technician scholarship predominated (35.93%); 88.28% of the caregivers kept their employment bonds, and 41.40% were patients' sisters. The deficit of knowledge on the disease was 73.43% of the caregiver learning necessities. Conclusions: female genre prevailed in caregivers with employment bonds, with higher incidence of sisters. It was evidenced the complexity of home care of the patients with sequels, progressive disabilities caused by the disease, generally assumed more easily by women (AU).

Degree day-based model predicts pink bollworm phenology across geographical locations of subtropics and semi-arid tropics of India.

There is a global concern about the effects of climate change driven shifts in species phenology on crop pests. Using geographically and temporally extensive data set of moth trap catches and temperatures across the cotton growing states of India, we predicted the phenology of cotton pink bollworm Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders). Our approach was centered on growing degree days (GDD), a measure of thermal accumulation that provides a mechanistic link between climate change and species' phenology. The phenology change was predicted by calculating absolute error associated with DD and ordinal date, an alternative predictor of phenology, for peak moth abundance. Our results show that GDD outperformed the ordinal dates in predicting peak moth abundance in 6 out of 10 selected locations. Using established thresholds of 13.0/34.0 °C, mean DD accumulated between the consecutive moth peaks across different years were estimated at 504.05 ± 4.84. Seven generations were determined for pink bollworm in a cropping season, the length of which varied between 35 and 73 days in response to temperature. Pink bollworm population reached its peak during third generation which can be the target for management actions. The study provides essential information for developing pink bollworm management strategies under climate change.

Trends in the utilisation rates and acute hospital capacity needs for total hip replacements: results of an analysis of administrative data.

Total hip replacement surgery is the mainstay of treatment for end-stage hip arthritis. In 2014, there were 28227 procedures (incidence rate 252/100000 population). Using administrative data, we projected the future volume of total hip replacement procedures and incidence rates using two models. The constant rate model fixes utilisation rates at 2014 levels and adjusts for demographic changes. Projections indicate 32248 admissions by 2025 or an annual growth of 1.22% (incidence rate 273). The time trend model additionally projects the evolution in age-specific utilisation rates. 34895 admissions are projected by 2025 or an annual growth of 1.95% (incidence rate 296). The projections show a shift in performing procedures at younger age. Forecasts of length of stay indicate a substantial shortening. By 2025, the required number of hospital beds will be halved. Despite more procedures, capacity can be reduced, leading to organisational change (e.g. elective orthopaedic clinics) and more labour intensive stays.

Sampling Methodology of Alphitobius diaperinus (Coleptera: Tenebrionidae) Population in Poultry Houses

Abstract This paper describes a methodology to evaluate Alphitobius diaperinus (Darkling beetle) population in order to estimate the effectiveness of control methods, consisting of direct sample collections from the poultry litter in 18 points, counting of adults and larvae, and subsequent comparison of the values obtained before and after of control strategies. It allows estimating the total population, population in a known area, as well to analyze the variations in different points all over the aviary. The method has shown to be very versatile, being indicated for population studies and efficacy evaluations, once it has already been validated in different experimental conditions.

Spatially explicit approach to estimation of total population abundance in field surveys.

Population abundance is fundamental in ecology and conservation biology, and provides essential information for predicting population dynamics and implementing conservation actions. While a range of approaches have been proposed to estimate population abundance based on existing data, data deficiency is ubiquitous. When information is deficient, a population estimation will rely on labor intensive field surveys. Typically, time is one of the critical constraints in conservation, and management decisions must often be made quickly under a data deficient situation. Hence, it is important to acquire a theoretical justification for survey methods to meet a required estimation precision. There is no such theory available in a spatially explicit context, while spatial considerations are critical to any field survey. Here, we develop a spatially explicit theory for population estimation that allows us to examine the estimation precision under different survey designs and individual distribution patterns (e.g. random/clustered sampling and individual distribution). We demonstrate that clustered sampling decreases the estimation precision when individuals form clusters, while sampling designs do not affect the estimation accuracy when individuals are distributed randomly. Regardless of individual distribution, the estimation precision becomes higher with increasing total population abundance and the sampled fraction. These insights provide theoretical bases for efficient field survey designs in information deficiency situations.

Evaluation of three methods for biomass estimation in small invertebrates, using three large disparate parasite species as model organisms.

Invertebrate biomass is considered one of the main factors driving processes in ecosystems. It can be measured directly, primarily by weighing individuals, but more often indirect estimators are used. We developed two indirect and non-destructive approaches to estimate biomass of small invertebrates in a simple manner. The first one was based on clay modelling and the second one was based on image analysis implemented with open-source software. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the widely used geometric approximation method (third method). We applied these three different methods to three morphologically disparate model species, an acanthocephalan worm, a crustacean and a flatworm. To validate our indirect estimations and to test their accuracy, we weighed specimens of the three species and calculated their tissue densities. Additionally, we propose an uncomplicated technique to estimate thickness of individuals under a microscope, a required measurement for two of the three indirect methods tested. The indirect methods proposed in this paper provided the best approximation to direct measurements. Despite its wide use, the geometric approximation method showed the lowest accuracy. The approaches developed herein are timely because the recently increasing number of studies requiring reliable biomass estimates for small invertebrates to explain crucial processes in ecosystems.

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.

Climate change impacts on the threatened terrestrial vertebrates of the Pacific Islands.

The aim of this study was to undertake a broad-scale understanding of the distribution of vulnerable, endangered and critically endangered terrestrial vertebrate species in the Pacific and the assessment of impacts of climate change and sea level rise. 150 critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable terrestrial vertebrates found in 23 countries of the Pacific were linked to island susceptibility to climate change. Out of the 1779 islands making up the 23 countries, 674 of them hosted at least one species from the above categories. 84 of the 150 species are endemic to this study area and many of these occur on islands with high susceptibility to climate change, with many of them occurring on one island only. The species data, together with islands, was overlain with Mean Significant Wave Height (Hs) projections for 2081-2100 under RCP4.5 and 8.5, and further analysed for threat of extinction. A large number of critically endangered and endangered species fall in regions that have the highest Hs projections.

Nest site lottery revisited: towards a mechanistic model of population growth suppressed by the availability of nest sites.

In the "nest site lottery" mechanism, newborns form a pool of candidates and randomly drawn candidates replace the dead adults in their nest sites. However, the selection process has only been analyzed under the assumption of an equilibrium population size. In this study, we extend this model to cases where the population size is not at an equilibrium, which yields a simplified (but fully mechanistic) biphasic population growth model, where the suppression of growth is driven only by the availability of free nest sites for newborns. This new model is free of the inconsistency found in the classical single phase models (such as the logistic model), where the number of recruited newborns can exceed the number of free nest sites. We analyzed the stability of the stationary density surfaces and the selection mechanisms for individual strategies described by different vital rates, which are implied by the new model.

Age structure of owned dogs under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area.

The age structure of the dog population is essential for planning and evaluating control programs for zoonotic diseases. We analyzed data of an owned-dog census in order to characterize, for the first time, the structure of a dog population under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area (Panorama, São Paulo State, Brazil) that recorded a dog-culling rate of 28% in the year of the study. Data on 1,329 households and 1,671 owned dogs revealed an owned dog:human ratio of 1:7. The mean age of dogs was estimated at 1.73 years; the age pyramid indicated high birth and mortality rates at the first year of age with an estimated cumulative mortality of 78% at the third year of age and expected life span of 2.75 years. In spite of the high mortality, a growth projection simulation suggested that the population has potential to grow in a logarithmic scale over the years. The estimated parameters can be further applied in models to maximize the impact and minimize financial inputs of visceral leishmaniasis control measures.

The Fontan epidemic: Population projections from the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry.

BACKGROUND: The number and age demographic of the future Fontan population is unknown. METHODS: Population projections were calculated probabilistically using microsimulation. Mortality hazard rates for each Fontan recipient were calculated from survivorship of 1353 Fontan recipients in the Australia and New Zealand Fontan Registry, based on Fontan type, age at Fontan, gender and morphology. Projected rates of new Fontan procedures were generated from historical rates of Fontan procedures per population births. RESULTS: At the end of 2014, the living Fontan population of Australia and New Zealand was 1265 people from an Australian and New Zealand regional population of 28 million (4.5 per 100,000 population). Of those, 165 (13%) received an atrio-pulmonary (AP) procedure, 262 (21%) a lateral tunnel (LT) procedure and 838 (66%) an extra-cardiac conduit (ECC) procedure. This population is expected to grow to 1917 (95% CI: 1846: 1986) by 2025 (5.8 per 100,000 population), with 149 (8%) AP procedures, 254 (13%) LT procedures, and 1514 (79%) ECC procedures. By 2045, the living Fontan population is expected to reach 2986 (95% CI: 2877: 3085; 7.2 per 100,000 population). The average age of the Fontan population is expected to increase from 18years in 2014 to 23years (95% CI: 22-23) by 2025, and 31years (95% CI: 30-31) by 2045. CONCLUSION: The Australian and New Zealand population of patients alive after a Fontan procedure will double over the next 20years increasing the demand for heart-failure services and cardiac transplantation. Greater consideration for the needs of this mostly adult Fontan population will be necessary.

Age structure of owned dogs under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area / A estrutura etária de cães com donos numa área endêmica de leishmaniose visceral / Estructura etaria de la población canina domiciliada en un área endémica con leishmaniasis visceral canina

Abstract: The age structure of the dog population is essential for planning and evaluating control programs for zoonotic diseases. We analyzed data of an owned-dog census in order to characterize, for the first time, the structure of a dog population under compulsory culling in a visceral leishmaniasis endemic area (Panorama, São Paulo State, Brazil) that recorded a dog-culling rate of 28% in the year of the study. Data on 1,329 households and 1,671 owned dogs revealed an owned dog:human ratio of 1:7. The mean age of dogs was estimated at 1.73 years; the age pyramid indicated high birth and mortality rates at the first year of age with an estimated cumulative mortality of 78% at the third year of age and expected life span of 2.75 years. In spite of the high mortality, a growth projection simulation suggested that the population has potential to grow in a logarithmic scale over the years. The estimated parameters can be further applied in models to maximize the impact and minimize financial inputs of visceral leishmaniasis control measures.

Resumo: É importante conhecer a estrutura etária da população canina para melhor planejar e avaliar os programas de controle de zoonoses. Os autores analisaram os dados de um censo de cães com donos para caracterizar, pela primeira vez, a estrutura etária de uma população canina sujeita à eliminação compulsória numa área endêmica de leishmaniose visceral (Panorama, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil) que registrou uma taxa de eliminação canina de 28% no ano do estudo. Os dados para 1.329 domicílios e 1.671 cães com donos mostraram uma razão de cães para humanos de 1:7. A média de idade dos cães foi estimada em 1,73 anos; a pirâmide etária indicou altas taxas de natalidade e de mortalidade no primeiro ano de vida, com uma estimativa de mortalidade cumulativa de 78% aos três anos de idade, e uma expectativa de vida de 2,75 anos. Apesar da alta mortalidade, uma simulação de projeção de crescimento sugeriu que a população tem o potencial de crescer numa escala logarítmica ao longo dos anos. Os parâmetros estimados podem ser aplicados também a modelos para maximizar o impacto e minimizar os insumos financeiros de medidas de controle da leishmaniose visceral.

Resumen: El conocimiento de la estructura etaria de una población de perros es esencial para la planificación de programas de control de zoonosis. Se analizaron datos de un censo de población canina domiciliada, con el objetivo de caracterizar, por primera vez, la estructura de una población de perros domiciliados en un área donde la eutanasia de perros positivos en leishmaniasis visceral es obligatoria (Panorama, São Paulo, Brasil), y que registró un 28% de casos de eutanasia en el año en que el censo fue realizado. Los datos de 1.329 domicilios y 1.671 perros resultaron en una razón perro:hombre de 1:7. La edad media de los perros fue estimada en 1,73 años; la pirámide de edad indica altas tasas de nacimiento y mortalidad hasta 1 año de vida, con tasa de mortalidad acumulada de un 78% en el tercer año de vida, y expectativa de vida de 2,75 años. A pesar de la alta tasa de mortalidad, la simulación de crecimiento poblacional sugiere que esta población tiene potencial de crecimiento en escala logarítmica a lo largo de los años. Los parámetros estimados pueden ser utilizados en modelos para maximizar el impacto y minimizar los costes de las medidas de control de la enfermedad.

Situación demografica y epidemiológica de los adultos mayores: Santander: 1964 a 2011 / Situação demográfica e epidemiológica das pessoas idosas: Santander: 1964 a 2011

El envejecimiento poblacional ocurre en todo el mundo, como resultado de la disminución de las tasas de fecundidad, natalidad, mortalidad y aumento en la esperanza de vida. Junto con el resultado natural del envejecimiento ocurren circunstancias como el incremento de la carga de enfermedad, representado en padecimientos cronicos, degenerativos y discapacitantes. Objetivo: Describir la situación demográfica y epidemiológica de los adultos mayores del departamento de Santander entre 1964 y 2020, y la información de morbilidad del año 2011. Metodologia: Se utilizaron los censos y proyecciones de población, e indicadores demográficos entre 1964 y 2020, defunciones no fetales por lugar de residencia, y Registros individuales de prestación de servicios de salud (RIPS) del año 2011. Se realizó análisis descriptivo con base en las variables sexo, edad, diagnóstico de consulta y causa básica de muerte. Resultados: La población santandereana muestra un constante aumento en su número pero a un ritmo menor que décadas atrás. Las tasas de fecundidad y natalidad han venido en descenso, y se proyecta que la tasa de mortalidad empezará a incrementarse de nuevo, así mismo la esperanza de vida tiene un comportamiento ascendente. En el a±o 2015 habrá 251,136 personas de 60 y más años, el 44% serán hombres frente al 56% de mujeres. Conclusiones: Las tasas de natalidad y fecundidad se proyectan al descenso. Por el contrario la tasa bruta de mortalidad se incrementó a partir del 2010 y se proyecta que continúe en esta dirección hasta estabilizarse. La esperanza de vida al nacer es mayor para las mujeres que para los hombres, estos datos ratifican el fenómeno de la feminizaci¾n del envejecimiento. La situación de la morbilidad es de caracter agudo, y crónico y de enfermedades no transmisibles.

Population aging occurs worldwide as a result of declining fertility rates, birth rate, mortality and increased life expectancy. An increased disease burden represented in chronic, degenerative and disabling conditions result from such natural aging process. Objective: To describe the demographic and epidemiological situation of seniors in Santander between 1964 and 2020, as well as morbidity information in the year 2011. Methodology: Censuses, population projections, demographic indicators between 1964 and 2020, non-fetal mortality, and individual records of the health service -RIPS- of 2011 were used. A descriptive analysis was performed based on the variables of sex, age, diagnosis, and cause of death. Results: Population from Santander shows a steady increase in its number but at a slower pace than decades ago. Fertility and birth rates have been dropping, and it is projected that the mortality rate and the life expectancy will begin to increase again. In 2015 there will be 251,136 people 60 and older, 44% will be men versus 56% women. Conclusions: The fertility and birth rates are projected to go down. By contrast, the crude death rate went up in 2010 and it is projected to continue in this direction until it stabilizes. Life expectancy at birth is higher for women than for men. This data confirms the feminization of aging phenomenon. The morbidity situation is characterized for being acute, chronic and belonging to non-communicable diseases.

O envelhecimento populacional ocorre em todo o mundo como resultado do declínio das taxas de fertilidade, natalidade, mortalidade e do aumento da expectativa de vida. Como resultado natural do envelhecimento, observam-se circunstancias tais como o aumento das doenças, muitas se apresentando em condiçoes cronicas, degenerativas e incapacitantes. Objetivo: Descrever a situação demográfica e epidemiológica das pessoas idosas no departamento de Santander, entre 1964 e 2020, e a informaþção sobre a morbidade do 2011. Metodologia: São usados os censos e as projeçoes da população e indicadores demográficos entre 1964 e 2020, mortes nÒo-fetais por lugar de residência, e registros individuais de prestaþção de serviços de saúde -RIPS- de 2011. Foi realizada análise descritiva com base no sexo, idade, diagn¾stico da consulta e causa básica da morte. Resultados: A população Santandereana mostra um aumento constante em seus números, mas a um ritmo mais lento do que nas décadas anteriores. As taxas de fertilidade e as de natalidade têm caído, prevê-se que a taxa de mortalidade vai começar a aumentar novamente, mas a expectativa de vida continua crescendo. Em 2015, haverá 251.136 pessoas com 60 anos ou mais, das quais 44% serão homens e 56% serão mulheres. (Em 2015, havia 251.136 pessoas com 60 anos ou mais, das quais 44% eram homens e 56% mulheres.) Conclusões: As taxas de nascimento e de fertilidade projetam-se em declínio. Em contraste, a taxa bruta de mortalidade aumentou a partir de 2010 e sua projeção continua nesta direção, até sua estabilização. A expectativa de vida ao nascer é maior para mulheres do que para os homens, estes dados confirmam o fenómeno da feminização do envelhecimento. A situação da morbidade é geralmente aguda e crónica, com doenças não transmissíveis.

Projeções populacionais em pequenas áreas: uma avaliação comparativa de técnicas de extrapolação matemática / Population projections for small areas: a comparative assessment of mathematical extrapolation techniques / Proyecciones de población en áreas pequeñas: una evaluación comparativa de técnicas de extrapolación matemática

A investigação do tamanho e distribuição futuros de uma população é de relevância central para estudiosos de população que se ocupam de questões relacionadas ao planejamento regional. O objetivo central deste artigo é discutir, de forma crítica e propositiva, algumas técnicas de extrapolação matemática frequentemente utilizadas para a projeção em pequenas áreas, no sentido de contribuir para os instrumentais analíticos de demógrafos e planejadores. Projeções populacionais para pequenas áreas são um desafio para os planejadores em função da instabilidade de suas predições e do conflito com a necessidade eminente para a construção de políticas públicas. Assim, este trabalho apresenta a aplicação de cinco técnicas de projeção para pequenas áreas, bem como algumas medidas de erro confrontando as projeções feitas para as microrregiões mineiras de 2010 com a realidade observada no Censo Demográfico do mesmo ano. Os resultados mostram que técnicas simples de projeção são aderentes à realidade no curto prazo. Aponta-se que as dissonâncias presentes entre as projeções e a realidade observada devem-se aos efeitos dimensionais, temporais e espaciais que as técnicas não conseguem mensurar com exatidão, mas que não invalidam seu uso a partir do conhecimento de suas limitações...

Understanding future scenarios of population size and distribution is a key aspect in regional analysis and planning. The main objective of this paper is to critically discuss some mathematical extrapolation techniques frequently used for projection in small areas, in order to contribute to the analytical instruments of demographers and planners. Population projections for small areas pose a challenge for planners due to the instability of the predictions and the conflict with the pressing need for formulating public policies. Thus, this paper presents the application of five projection techniques for small areas, as well as some error measures, comparing the projections made for the 2010 Minas Gerais micro-regions with the reality observed in the Demographic Census carried out in the same year. The results show the reliability of simple projection techniques in the short term. The discrepancies between projected and observed populations are due to dimensional, spatial, and temporal effects that cannot be measured exactly, but which do not invalidate their utilization since when the limitations are known and taken into account...

La investigación del tamaño y la distribución futuros de una población tiene una importancia fundamental para los estudiosos de la población que se ocupan de cuestiones relacionadas con la planificación regional. El objetivo central de este artículo es discutir, de forma crítica y propositiva, algunas técnicas de extrapolación matemática utilizadas frecuentemente para la proyección en áreas pequeñas, con el propósito de contribuir con los instrumentos de análisis de los demógrafos y los planificadores. Las proyecciones de población para áreas pequeñas son un desafío para los planificadores, en función de la inestabilidad de sus predicciones y del conflicto con su necesidad eminente para la construcción de políticas públicas. Este trabajo presenta la aplicación de cinco técnicas de proyección para áreas pequeñas y algunas medidas de error, confrontando las proyecciones realizadas para las microrregiones mineras en 2010 con la realidad observada en el censo demográfico del país ese mismo año. Los resultados muestran que las técnicas simples de proyección se ajustan a la realidad en el corto plazo. Se señala que las discordancias presentes entre las proyecciones y la realidad observada se deben a los efectos dimensionales, temporales y espaciales que las técnicas no logran medir con exactitud, pero que no invalidan su uso a partir del conocimiento de sus limitaciones...

Mortalidade por câncer de mama nos estados do nordeste do brasil: tendências atuais e projeções até 2030 / Breast cancer mortality in the northeast of brazil: current trends and forecasts to 2030

Objetivo: analisar a tendência temporal da mortalidade por câncer de mama nos estados do nordeste do Brasil no período de 1996 a 2010 e projetar a mortalidade para o período de 2011 a 2030. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal, com uso de informações sobre óbitos (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade) e base demográfica (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). Foram realizadas análises das tendências da mortalidade por meio da regressão Joinpoint, e o Nordpred para o cálculo das projeções. Resultados: De 1996 a 2010, os estados de Pernambuco e Ceará apresentaram as maiores taxas de mortalidade por câncer de mama. A análise pelo Joinpoint verificou aumento significativo para todos os estados do nordeste do Brasil, com destaque para os estados do Piauí (APC=9,7%, IC95%8,1-11,4 p<0,01) e da Paraíba (APC=9,1%, IC95%7,0-11,3 p<0,01). O Rio Grande do Norte apresentou a ocorrência do Joinpoint no ano de 1999, passando de uma tendência de estabilidade para uma tendência de aumento significativo (APC=6,6%). Na projeção da mortalidade até o ano de 2030, as maiores variações nas taxas de mortalidade serão observadas para os estados do Maranhão, Alagoas e Piauí. Os números projetados serão explicados em maior parte pela variação nos riscos de morte. Conclusões: A mortalidade por câncer de mama no nordeste do Brasil apresentou forte tendência de aumento, com grandes incrementos nas taxas até o ano de 2030, o que torna imprescindível a estruturação dos serviços de promoção, vigilância e assistência à saúde para essa enfermidade nessa região (AU).

Objective: To analyze time trends in mortality from breast cancer in the states of northeastern Brazil in the period 1996-2010 and project mortality for the 2011 to 2030 period. Methods: Ecological time series study, using data on deaths (Mortality Information System) and demographic base (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Analysis of mortality trends by Joinpoint regression and Nordpred for calculating the projections. Results: From 1996 to 2010, the states of Pernambuco and Ceará had the highest mortality rates from breast cancer. The analysis by Joinpoint found significant increase for all states of the northeast of Brazil, especially the states of Piauí (APC = 9.7%, 95% CI 8.1 - 11.4 p <0.01) and Paraíba (APC = 9.1%, 95% CI 7.0 -11.3 p <0.01). The Rio Grande do Norte state presented the Joinpoint occurrence in 1999, from a trend of stability for a significant increase trend (APC = 6.6% per year). The mortality projection to the year 2030, the greatest variations in mortality rates are observed in the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Alagoas. The projected numbers will be explained in most of the variation in risk of death. Conclusions: The mortality from breast cancer in northeastern Brazil showed a strong upward trend, with large increases in rates by the year 2030, which makes it essential for the structuring of promotion, surveillance and health care for this disease in this region (AU).

Visibility from roads predict the distribution of invasive fishes in agricultural ponds.

Propagule pressure and habitat characteristics are important factors used to predict the distribution of invasive alien species. For species exhibiting strong propagule pressure because of human-mediated introduction of species, indicators of introduction potential must represent the behavioral characteristics of humans. This study examined 64 agricultural ponds to assess the visibility of ponds from surrounding roads and its value as a surrogate of propagule pressure to explain the presence and absence of two invasive fish species. A three-dimensional viewshed analysis using a geographic information system quantified the visual exposure of respective ponds to humans. Binary classification trees were developed as a function of their visibility from roads, as well as five environmental factors: river density, connectivity with upstream dam reservoirs, pond area, chlorophyll a concentration, and pond drainage. Traditional indicators of human-mediated introduction (road density and proportion of urban land-use area) were alternatively included for comparison instead of visual exposure. The presence of Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) was predicted by the ponds' higher visibility from roads and pond connection with upstream dam reservoirs. Results suggest that fish stocking into ponds and their dispersal from upstream sources facilitated species establishment. Largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) distribution was constrained by chlorophyll a concentration, suggesting their lower adaptability to various environments than that of Bluegill. Based on misclassifications from classification trees for Bluegill, pond visual exposure to roads showed greater predictive capability than traditional indicators of human-mediated introduction. Pond visibility is an effective predictor of invasive species distribution. Its wider use might improve management and mitigate further invasion. The visual exposure of recipient ecosystems to humans is important for many invasive species that spread with frequent instances of human-mediated introduction.

Proporção de médicos em relação "a população: um modelo matemático para estimação / Proporción de médicos em relación a la populación: un modelo matemático para estimar / Proportion of physicians in relation to population: a mathematical model for estimating

No Brasil, pelo menos no campo das intenções ou das leis, o governo amparou e garantiu, legalmente, o direito ao acesso justo e imparcial de toda a população aos serviços de saúde, mas a longevidade transformou-se no desafio das políticas públicas de saúde, pois o atendimento das demandas de uma crescente população de idosos que modifica o perfil de saúde em função da substituição das doenças agudas, que se resolvem rapidamente por meio da cura ou do óbito, pelas doenças crônicas e com elas mais incapacidades e maiores gastos com saúde. O estudo se justifica pela elevação da expectativa de vida da população e pela necessidade de estudar o equilíbrio entre população e número de médicos. Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar a população de médicos, para os próximos anos, no município de João Pessoa e de maneira específica projetar a curva de crescimento da população médica, ainda projetar a curva de crescimento da população para analisar a relação entre faixas etárias e médicos para o mesmo período. Com a utilização de modelos de séries temporais em conjunto com a análise de regressão linear simples foi projetada a população médica para os próximos anos e comparada com a população da cidade, para o mesmo período. O estudo revelou que a cidade possui médicos em número superior ao recomendado pela Organização Mundial da Saúde e que, segundo as projeções, essa relação deverá continuar aumentando. Ainda que a proporção da população idosa em relação aos demais habitantes apresenta tendência de aumento.

En Brasil, por lo menos en elcampo de las intenciones o de las leyes, el gobierno amparó y garantizó, legalmente, el derecho al acceso justo e imparcial de toda la población a los servicios de salud, pero la longevidad se transformó en el desafío de las políticas públicas de salud, pues el atendimiento de las demandas de una creciente población de ancianos que modifica el perfil de salud en función de la substitución de las enfermedades agudas, que se resuelven rápidamente por medio de la cura o del óbito, por las enfermedades crónicas y con ellas más incapacidades y mayores gastos con salud. El estudio se justifica por la elevación de la expectativa de vida de la población y por la necesidad de estudiar el equilibrio entre población y número de médicos. Así, este trabajo tiene como objetivo estimar la población de médicos, para los próximos años, en el municipio de João Pessoa y de manera específica proyectar la curva de crecimiento de la población médica, como también proyectar la curva de crecimiento de la población para analizar la relación entre fajas etarias y médicos para el mismo período. Con la utilización de modelos de series temporales en conjunto con el análisis de regresión linear simple fue proyectada la población médica para los próximos años y comparada con la población de la ciudad, para el mismo período. El estudio reveló que la ciudad posee médicos en un número superior al recomendado por la Organización Mundial de la Salud y que, según las proyecciones, esa relación deberá continuar aumentando. Aunque la proporción de la población anciana en relación a los demás habitantes presenta tendencia de aumento.

In Brazil, at least in the field of intentions or laws, the government has sustained and assured, legally, the right to fair and equitable access of all people to health services,but longevity has become the challenge of public health policies, for meeting the demands of a growing population of elderly that modifies the health profile of the population due to the substitution of acute illnesses that can be solved quickly through the healing or death by chronic illnesses that are more expensive. The study is justified by the increase in life expectancy of the population and the need to study the balance between population and number of doctors. So, this research aims to estimate the population of physicians, for years to come, in the city of João Pessoa and specifically design the growth curve of the physician population, and to project the curve of growth the population to analyze the relationship between age and doctors for the same period. Using models for time series together with the analysis of simple linear regression, it was projected the medical population in the coming years, and compared it with the city's population, for the same period. The study revealed that the city has more doctors than recommended by the World Health Organization, and that, according to the projections this relation will keep increasing. Even though the proportion of elderly people in relation to habitants demonstrates a trend of increasing.

Estimativas e projeções populacionais para pequenos domínios: uma avaliação da precisão para municípios do Rio de Janeiro em 2000 e 2007 / Demographic estimates and projections for small domains: an evaluation of the precision for the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro in 2000 and 2007 / Estimaciones y proyecciones poblacionales para pequeños dominios: una evaluación de la precisión para municipios de Río de Janeiro en el año 2000 y 2007

As projeções populacionais vêm sendo utilizadas, com frequência cada vez maior, como subsídio para planejar o desenvolvimento econômico, social, político e ambiental de diversos países. Entretanto, quanto maiores os níveis de detalhamento geográfico, demográfico e temporal requeridos, menos precisas se tornam as projeções. Em pequenos domínios, como municípios, por exemplo, enfrentam-se dificuldades como tamanho reduzido da população, volatilidade dos dados nos seus padrões de crescimento, falta de informações de qualidade, entre outros. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar algumas metodologias de projeções populacionais para pequenos domínios, tomando como objeto de estudo os municípios do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. As técnicas estudadas são os métodos AiBi, relação de coortes de Duchesne e correlação de razões, usadas para comparação com os resultados do Censo 2000 e com a Contagem de 2007. Os resultados comparativos com o Censo 2000 indicam que, em média, as estimativas e projeções provenientes da aplicação dos três métodos apresentam um nível de precisão dentro de uma margem aceitável, mas os erros variam de -21,4 por cento a 24,1 por cento e as projeções tendem a ser subestimadas. Já a comparação dos resultados com a Contagem de 2007 revelou-se menos precisa. Pelos motivos descritos neste trabalho, o método de correlação de razões, que utiliza variáveis sintomáticas, mostrou melhores resultados do que os demais, entre o conjunto de métodos avaliados para os municípios do Rio de Janeiro.

Demographic projections have been used more and more frequently to generate information for planning economic, social, political and environmental development in many different countries. But the broader the levels of geographic, demographic and temporal details required, the less precise are the projections. In small domains, such as municipalities, difficulties come up that include small populations, volatility of the data on growth patterns, poor quality of information, and others. The objective of this article is to evaluate several different methodologies of demographic projections for small domains, taking the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro (of which the City of Rio de Janeiro is the Capital), Brazil, as a set of examples. The techniques studied are the apportionment method (AiBi), Duchesne's relationship of cohorts and ratio correlations, used for comparisons with the results of the Federal Census of 2000 and with the Counting carried out in 2007. The comparative results with the Census of 2000 indicate that, on the average, the estimates and projections produced by applying the three methods show a precision level within acceptable margins, but the errors vary from -21.4 percent to 24.1 percent, and the projections tend to be underestimated. In contrast, the comparison of the results from the Counting of 2007 proved to be less precise. As described in this article, the method of ratio correlations, which uses symptomatic variables, was seen to be the best of the three methods used to evaluate the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Las proyecciones poblacionales se vienen utilizando, con una frecuencia cada vez mayor, como ayuda para planificar el desarrollo económico, social, político y ambiental de diverso países. Sin embargo, cuanto mayores son los niveles de detalle geográfico, demográfico y temporal requeridos, menos exactas son las proyecciones. En los pequeños dominios, como los municipios, por ejemplo, se enfrentan dificultades como el tamaño reducido de la población, la volatilidad de los datos en sus patrones de crecimiento, la falta de información de calidad, entre otros. El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar algunas metodologías de proyecciones poblacionales para pequeños dominios, tomando como objeto de estudio a los municipios del Estado de Río de Janeiro. Las técnicas estudiadas son los métodos AiBi, relación de cohortes de Duchesne y correlación de razones, usadas para la comparación con los resultados del Censo 2000 y con el Recuento de 2007. Los resultados comparativos con el Censo 2000 indican que, en promedio, las estimaciones y proyecciones provenientes de la aplicación de los tres métodos presentan un nivel de precisión dentro de un margen aceptable, pero los errores varían de -21,4 por ciento a 24,1 por ciento y las proyecciones tienden a ser subestimadas. La comparación de los resultados con el Recuento de 2007 se mostró menos exacta. Por los motivos descritos en este trabajo, el método de correlación de razones, que utiliza variables sintomáticas, mostró mejores resultados que el resto, dentro del conjunto de métodos evaluados para los municipios de Río de Janeiro.